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The probability field in effects


DavidW

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This is probably known to the cognoscenti (and is sort of on IESDP), but I didn't know it and judging by various spell files, other modders don't either, so now that I've worked it out, I thought it might be worth sharing.

 

Effect files have two probability fields: Probability1 and Probability2. Each should be thought of as having 100 possible values, from 0-99. (Probability1 is usually set to 100, which is confusing, but I think it could be set to 99 with no change.)

 

When an event fires, a random number in the 0-99 range is generated. If that number is <=Probability1 and >=Probability2, the event fires.

 

Some counter-intuitive cases (this is where I started to get confused):

 

- if you set both Probability1 and Probability2 to 0, you don't deactivate the spell: you get a spell with a 1% chance of firing (it fires whenever the random number generator spits out zero).

 

- if you set Probability1 to 1 and Probability2 to 0 (as, e.g., happens in BGT's implementation of the iron crisis), you don't get a spell with a 1% chance of firing, but one with a 2% chance of firing.

 

 

I saw that this was what the IESDP said, but I wasn't sure I believed it, so I ran some tests with a custom spell that kills you with low probability, a custom script that casts the spell 10x per second and displays a count of the number of castings, and a hapless NPC (the appropriately-named 'Deder', from Candlekeep). The ground outside Winthrop's inn is littered with the bodies of Deder's clones, but I've established to my satisfaction that it's correct!

 

 

I *think* there are quite a few mods where people are trying for a 1% chance of something happening and ending up with a 2% chance - hence this post.

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Probability1 is usually set to 100, which is confusing, but I think it could be set to 99 with no change.

Yep.

 

- if you set both Probability1 and Probability2 to 0, you don't deactivate the spell: you get a spell with a 1% chance of firing (it fires whenever the random number generator spits out zero).

In the olden days, this is how Fixpack would "delete" effects. We would still get rare reports of items/spells doing stuff that they shouldn't until we realized this.

 

I *think* there are quite a few mods where people are trying for a 1% chance of something happening and ending up with a 2% chance - hence this post.

Fixpack has, as of v12, corrected all of the vanilla resources in the beta core fixes; from the documentation on game mechanics fixes:

 

Percentage-Based Effects Generally Incorrect

 

Pretty much any item or spell in the game that had a percentage-based chance to do something--e.g. the Club of Detonation +3 doing bonus fire damage on 20% of hits, or the probabilities to summon multiple monsters from summon spells--was marginally wrong. The internal effects are all coded based on percentages from 1-100, but the game engine actually rolled a 0-99. This resulted in the aforementioned Club of Detonation doing extra fire damage on 21% of its hits instead of 20%.

The bug is filed for the EEs but it's currently in the backlog.

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Another oddity I noticed some time ago: if a spell contains effects in multiple probability ranges (e.g. 0-9, 10-19, 20-29, ...), you might experience effects triggering from two or more (or zero) independent ranges on rare occasions. This is caused by a quirk in the game engine if auto-pause conditions "Spell cast" or "End of round" are active.

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Another oddity I noticed some time ago: if a spell contains effects in multiple probability ranges (e.g. 0-9, 10-19, 20-29, ...), you might experience effects triggering from two or more (or zero) independent ranges on rare occasions. This is caused by a quirk in the game engine if auto-pause conditions "Spell cast" or "End of round" are active.

Oh right, forgot to mention this as well. Yeah, auto-pause on spell cast can do two fairly bad things--one, as you've already mentioned, is that it can re-roll the probabilities so that not every effect gets the same roll (for further reading, any old thread about the duration of the Friends spell in the Fixpack). Another, but lesser known problem, is that it can sometimes cause the engine to apply spell effects out of order, which can cause all sorts of bad things for spells like Otiluke's where the order is necessary for the proper functioning of the spell.

 

edit: I should note that while auto-pause on spell cast is the most common way to experience these bugs, *any* pause at the critical moment can produce the same result.

Edited by CamDawg
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I did not know that.. and I kinda hate it.. why on earth would you make Probability ZERO mean "yeah there is a chance..." :crazy:

Mathematically speaking it makes sense - in fact, worrying about how the alternative reading didn't make sense was what led me to this.
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Another oddity I noticed some time ago: if a spell contains effects in multiple probability ranges (e.g. 0-9, 10-19, 20-29, ...), you might experience effects triggering from two or more (or zero) independent ranges on rare occasions. This is caused by a quirk in the game engine if auto-pause conditions "Spell cast" or "End of round" are active.

Oh right, forgot to mention this as well. Yeah, auto-pause on spell cast can do two fairly bad things--one, as you've already mentioned, is that it can re-roll the probabilities so that not every effect gets the same roll (for further reading, any old thread about the duration of the Friends spell in the Fixpack). Another, but lesser known problem, is that it can sometimes cause the engine to apply spell effects out of order, which can cause all sorts of bad things for spells like Otiluke's where the order is necessary for the proper functioning of the spell.

 

edit: I should note that while auto-pause on spell cast is the most common way to experience these bugs, *any* pause at the critical moment can produce the same result.

 

Yes, many of the EE spells and especially the ones in IWD:EE are dependant on immunity effects placed at the beginning of the effects list. They are negated if you use autopause on hit or happen to pause the game at the wrong time.

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On 11/21/2018 at 9:14 PM, Ulb said:

I did not know that.. and I kinda hate it.. why on earth would you make Probability ZERO mean "yeah there is a chance..." :crazy:

 

@DavidW is right, mathematically speaking makes sense ---> https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/882784/does-0-chance-mean-impossible/882787 ----- '1/infinite' tends to zero but it's not zero (in case you're familiar with the idea of a limit in mathematics.....)

On 11/21/2018 at 9:31 PM, CamDawg said:

The bug is filed for the EEs but it's currently in the backlog.

Are you also aware of the Iron Crisis (probability1 = 1) and Charm immunity of Half-Elves/Elves (probability1 = 30/90)?

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11 hours ago, Luke said:

@DavidW is right, mathematically speaking makes sense ---> https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/882784/does-0-chance-mean-impossible/882787 ----- '1/infinite' tends to zero but it's not zero (in case you're familiar with the idea of a limit in mathematics.....)

If 1/infinite is shorthand for lim_(n->infinity) 1/n, then it is zero. The article you link is about something slightly different, whether 'zero probability' means 'impossible', which it doesn't at least in situations where the probability measure is defined on an uncountable set (because otherwise you get pathologies, where every outcome is impossible).

But in any case I just meant something more mundane: that if you discretize the 0-100 probability range with 100 integer-valued points, either 0 or 100 must fail to be a probability.

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3 hours ago, DavidW said:

But in any case I just meant something more mundane: that if you discretize the 0-100 probability range with 100 integer-valued points, either 0 or 100 must fail to be a probability.

1

I would clarify that by stating that it doesn't fail... but that it falls out of the range of probability, as there are in fact 99 integers between 0 and 100, but if we are including both of them in, that makes there to be 101 numbers.

PS, it's funny how the linked math question, doesn't say how the number is "chosen".

If it's done via a computer... it can always be referred from the previous choice, as surprise, calculators run just a set of number that is divided by the given integer amount, which then gives the divisional remainder as the answer.

But if it's done by a human.... there's only a limited amount of data they have from which they can decide to pick a number, that they themselves know.

Edited by Jarno Mikkola
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On 11/21/2018 at 9:14 PM, Ulb said:

I did not know that.. and I kinda hate it.. why on earth would you make Probability ZERO mean "yeah there is a chance..." :crazy:

 

and what is the probability of life in the Universe?

 

BRACE YOURSELFs!!!

 

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not that high, eh? and this is only for a puny ameba, for Boo we can probably toss in a couple of 0's more. 

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