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Truly Random Deck of Many Things


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When you're gambling with Aesgareth, he has a 75% chance to win every time. While I agree that this is in some way accurate (professional gamblers make moeney because, most of the time, they aren't actually gambling), it's not exactly fun--the only way I can achieve fairness is to allow myself one Reload while dueling for each item. And what's with that last draw, where Aesgareth is guaranteed to win every time?!? At least there's relatively low risk: There's no danger in "I wager some of my experience" when even Monks can have access to nondispellable NPP by this point.

Using the Deck on your own is almost equally laughable: There's some logic to why the gods might allow someone like you a maximum of three draws from the deck, but why the hell should the odds of what cards you draw be determined by what cards had been drawn previously? Huh? HUUUHHH?!?


What I'd like to see:

  • All users of the Deck have exactly the same odds of drawing from the same set of cards and their effects.
  • Any card, once drawn, disappears and cannot be drawn again.
  • The only NON-random element is that the "BALANCE" card cannot be drawn during the duel with Aesgareth.
  • The effects of each card are irrelevant to its "suit."
  • If you wager some experience during the duel, Aesgareth will take precisely that, instead of trying (and failing) to Level Drain you.

1 invisible creature, which already exists, 52 (or so) local variables--this one seems quite doable.

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If the Deck of Many Things has only one of each card (I guess conceptually, or flavor-wise), then the probability of a given result for each draw will be completely independent of previous draws. If it has more than one of each card, though, then it will depend on previous draws.


Combinatorics, using a deck of Earth playing cards, shows this quite easily. Example:


There are four Queens out of 52 cards. If you shuffle a deck of cards and draw the top card, the chance of drawing a Queen is 4/52 = 1/13. Suppose that card is a Queen, and suppose further that it isnt returned to the deck. There are now only three queens out of 51 cards, and the chance of the next card being a queen is now only 3/51 = 1/17.

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If the Deck of Many Things has only one of each card (I guess conceptually, or flavor-wise), then the probability of a given result for each draw will be completely independent of previous draws.

Each card in the Deck is unique, at least all of the cards that currently exist in-game are.



Is that it? Nobody else has any thoughts or opinions on this matter? Dang. :)






Wiup! Rdd is fm, wiup!! F tru'm epdfpjp fm'v rdd wiup!

F wim prmpu eh r ynrwiu sin mqrm snprzfu' mnbrvcnp!

F wim jiafmpy ck! Eh r yfvwcvmfuw rtfy-enprmqfuw ynrwiu! Ruy uix fm'v WIUP!

Uim MQP diim, AH diim. Afup!

Xrfm, xqh yi F vicuy scuuh? Qpddi? Qpddi?

Xqrm? Ui! Yiu'm hic yrnp!

Vuprz rmmrtz eiim mi mqp srtp!

Yrnu vmnrfwqm.

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I like the idea, it makes sense. I have no idea about it's codability, though...

Thanks, and thanks to Linguist too. It should be perfectly feasible, since even if IE doesn't contain a random number generator we could use, I know WeiDU does, so all we need is two sets (one for Aesgareth, one for the party) of 52 tiny dialogues.



Why the Haley quotes?

Because I needed someplace to copy them down so I could decode them, and I happened to have the G3 window open at the time. :)

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If Aesgareth has a 75% chance to win, then why have I never lost to him?


It would be nice to get a deck that's actually random.  Although, realistically, the player should be at a disadvantage.

In each round, there are 2 cards that the player can draw--high or low. Aesgareth also draws 1 of 2 cards, also scoring high or low. His high card beats your high card, and the 2 low cards are of equal suit--and Aesgareth, as the dealer, wins in the event of a tie. Your only way to win is if you draw high and he draws low.


I've compiled a list of 52 cards and their effects, mostly staying true to the existing DoMT (both in the game and in canon source material), although it would be nice if somebody could tell me if "Empress" and "Wheel" have any real effects on Aesgareth. Anyway, 52 cards neatly generates 4 suits of 13 cards each, and each card beats all cards of lower point value on that 1-to-13 scale. Aesgareth will still win in the event of a tie, but now it's only a 1 in 13 chance* instead of a 1 in 4. I think that's a reasonable disadvantage for the player.


* Technically, the odds aren't exactly 1 in 13, as the "Balance" card is out of play during the duel, but it's close enough. Oh, and I was actually wrong about Monks being able to have Negative Plane Protection here--both the Spectral Brand and Angurvadal are unavailable at this point, meaning the only opportunity is through one of the Ascension Pocket Plane rewards; not very likely to come into play.

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